Garhwa: The voting patterns are entirely different for Garhwa-Ranka constituency after Girinath Singh joins BJP just before the general election 2019. A neck and neck fight between incumbent MLA – JMM candidate Mithilesh Thakur, who has been consistently trying since 2009 assembly election. In 2009 election, he got 9.4% vote share, while 23% voters like him in 2014 assembly election. Interestingly, Girinath Singh was the runner-up with 26% vote shares during last two assembly polls, who is now the part of BJP. The votes which Girinath Sigh holds upon won't transfer to anyone except him; else it can be transferred to likewise JMM candidate.
MLA Satendra Nath Tiwari Mithilesh Thakur (JMM) Dr. Patanjali Keshri (JDU)
On ground, there is a buzz that Girinath Singh has asked his supporters to vote for other than BJP, If he is not given ticket from this Vishan Sabha. Also possibility that he may choose to say good bye, provided he must have offer from other political outfits. On being asked, the Psephologist, Rakesh Tiwari says, “It can happen, since he (Girinath Singh) has been four times MLA from here, so he cannot sit silently, if he is ignored. In that case, he has choice in opting for both – leaving party or backstabbing the existing candidate”. On the other hand, he also outline that SN Tiwari could be more suitable for the BJP to pass the ticket, as there is still possibility that he may win. However, other would face huge difficulties in doing so. Falling in line, JMM would surely get the momentum.
The two, out of six blocks in the Vidhan Sabha, Chinnia and Ramkanda have quite clear about the voting as yet. The voters of these blocks seem annoyed and might turn it ugly as far as voting for the ruling party is concerned. The predictably, other than BJP could perform better than incumbent, as data also suggests that BJP tend to get a lesser vote share in assembly polls than the Lok Sabha polls held during the beginning of the year. The only exception which presumably indicates is to have a wave in favour of the ruling elite.
Mithilesh Thakur of JMM is on lead currently with 3 -7% in Ramkanda, while he may get more than 9% voters in Chinnia, which is certainly a problems for the BJP in these blocks. A JMM gain over BJP doesn't come in the same category as both parties are contesting for last two elections 2009 and 2014 effectively. In 2009, Mithilesh Thakur gained only 9.45% out of a total voting turn out, while SN Tiwari of the BJP has got more than 33%, so the gap that had allowed, forcing is clearly visible.
Emergence of new leadership
This constituency also witnessing a new leadership, Dr. Patanjali Keshri is emerging as new face for the people. Dr. Keshri, a physician by profession, has recently resigned from job, and become part of the active politics. He probably can fight election on JDU ticket from here. Analyst believes that he may be future leader only if he is able to read the mind of voters; the constituency could observe goodness, if he does so.
If the past pattern is anything to go by, there is unlikely to be any major improvement in the JMM's vote share. Therefore, the BJP is likely to retain a sizeable lead in the other blocks Meral, Garhwa, Ranka and Danda. The gap between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in the state has been around 5-6 months. BJP had a huge vote share of 58 percent in state in the Lok Sabha polls earlier this year. This could reduce a bit but the lead is too substantial for the ruling part to overcome.
Voting Patterns and Behaviours
Past data suggests that the others' vote share will also reduce substantially from the 28.4 percent it secured in the Lok Sabha polls. However, it is possible that this may not happen as the party could gain some ground in castes dominated areas. Team found themselves relevant in all 73 gram-panchayats across the constituencies. More than 6000 people interviewed in a group or personally. Out of a total 1656 persons were taken for records, each and every point is taken, duly reviewed with the help of past data or with psephologist. The sample cases we found to put into the records as follows; 354 from Chinnia, 515 from Meral, 242 from Danda, 317 from Ranka, while 228 from Ramkanda and a sizeable amount of people were approached in the urban areas of Garhwa city and its nearby including Gowawal.
Voting patterns and Behaviours blockwise.
Although, it was very difficult to apprehend the voters mind, patterns and voting behaviours. The subsequent data would presumably be 17%, 18%, 20%, 15%, 23 and 26% (percent). So, it has been taken as raw as it is allowed to perceive, while the other segment of this chart indicates that trend is positively working even by comparing to surveys. However, the trends may largely vary based on the recent census. The rural areas still could have more populations as compare to urban areas. While, trends show it effective data – such as for Garhwa and Meral, however, Ranka and Chinia could be little compare with it; then Ramkanda and Danda blocks may find significant reduction to it.
At the end – the voters 'say' is something interesting, should come to either way – SN Tiwari of the BJP and Mithilesh Thakur of JMM would have very close contest. They might gain almost equal numbers of vote share this time. It is presumably between 33 to 36 % (SN Tiwari), while 31 to 35-37% for (Mithilesh Thakur) and the reasons are quite similar to what happened in electoral politics. The trends, the team observed – A chance must to be given to Mithilesh, as he has constantly been into the field even though JMM lost the two consecutive elections in 2009 and 2014. He has been amicable, helping nature, supported whenever obligatory. The first time voters had an excited outburst about him that Mithilesh Thakur is all time feathers for them. Had shown his high visibility as far as sports and other related activities are concerned.
Fall of Girinath Singh
On being asked about Girinath Singh, voters were not interested in response to the questions asked about, they simply dodged it – he has been four times MLA from this, however, least bother to resolve the basic issues of the areas. Around 17% voters across the constituency were in his favour, rest are dislinked to him. While, 33% of Chinnia, 27% of Meral, 23% of Danda, 29% of Ramkanda, 31% of Ranka and 59% of urban voters are liking the incumbent MLA Satendra Nath Tiwari. The terms that they (voters) have set for such vote's share are such as, water-tube (Chappakal), huge number of boaring were installed in last 10 years from 2009 till now, better roadways connectivity etc. While, rest population disimpose faith in him – what they told were also remarkable such as less/no connectivity after winning election, complete dysfunctional of the system (educated class), corruptions, futile bureaucracy, especially (issues related to PDS, PMAwas Yojna, Land records related issues) were not handled effectively.
Despite the fact, he may gain remarkably if BJP gives him ticket, else ruling party mightn't get into this election. The widespread astuteness would be to allow the incumbent MLA to contest, as he has still been a better choice despite disliking him. However, surprisingly, the findings do not seem to indicate for Alakh Pandey, Bhagat Singh Sahu this time, who cannot lead the party with victory in assembly election. Both leaders were found to be liked in variable measure – 8 & 6% respectively.